America's annual joint military exercises with South korea always frustrate North korea.
The war games set to begin Monday may hold more potential to provoke
than ever, given President Donald Trump's "fire and fury" threats and
Pyongyang's as-yet-unpursued plan to launch missiles close to Guam.
Will the allies keep it low-key, or focus on projecting strength? An
examination of this year's drills and how the North might respond to
them:
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THE WAR GAMES
The Ulchi Freedom Guardian drills, which will run through Aug. 31, will
be the first large-scale military exercise between the allies since
North Korea successfully flight-tested two intercontinental ballistic
missiles in July and threatened to bracket Guam with intermediate range
ballistic missile fire earlier this month.
Despite some calls to postpone or drastically modify drills to ease the
hostility on the Korean Peninsula, U.S. and South Korean military
officials say that the long-scheduled exercises will go ahead as
planned.
The drills, which began in the 1970s and will involve 17,500 American
troops and 50,000 South Korean soldiers this year, consist mainly of
computer simulations aimed at honing joint-decision making and planning
and improving command operations.
About 25,000 U.S. service members joined last year's UFG drills. An
official from U.S. Forces Korea, who didn't want to be named citing
office rules, said that the number of participating American troops can
marginally change depending on how training events are designed and that
the lower number this year doesn't represent an effort to downsize the
drills.
The United States and South Korea also hold larger war games in the
spring, called Key Resolve and Foal Eagle, which involve live-fire
exercises and training with tanks, aircraft and warships.
There's media speculation that the allies might try to keep this year's
drills low-key by not dispatching long-range bombers and other U.S.
strategic assets to the region. But that possibility worries some, who
say it would send the wrong message to both North Korea and the South,
where there are fears that the North's advancing nuclear capabilities
may eventually undermine a decades-long alliance with the United States.
"If anything, the joint exercises must be strengthened," Cheon
Seongwhun, who served as a national security adviser to former
conservative South Korean President Park Geun-hye, said in an interview.
Impoverished North Korea hates the drills in part because it must
frequently respond with its own expensive displays of military might.
During last year's drills, the North successfully test-fired for the
first time a submarine-launched ballistic missile ruler Kim Jong Un then
praised as the "success of all successes." Shortly after the drills,
the North carried out its fifth and biggest nuclear test, which it
claimed was of a "standardized" warhead that could fit on a variety of
its rockets.
During this year's war games in March, North Korea launched four
extended-range Scud missiles into the sea in what it described as a
rehearsal for striking U.S. military bases in Japan.
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MISSILE THREATS
It's almost certain that this year's drills will trigger some kind of
reaction from North Korea. The question is how strong it will be.
Some experts say North Korea is mainly focused on the bigger picture of
testing its bargaining power against the United States with its new
long-range missiles and likely has no interest in letting things get too
tense during the drills.
If this is right, expect the usual propaganda belligerence in state
media or low-level provocations like artillery and short-range missile
drills. Or perhaps the North could conduct its first submarine-launched
ballistic missile test since last August, which, if successful, would
allow it to demonstrate serious military capability without posing an
immediate direct threat to the United States.
"North Korea has already flight-tested ICBMs twice this year and will
probably take a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of stronger
pressure from the United States and China and maybe even seek an
opportunity for talks, rather than quickly move forward with another
test," said Moon Seong Mook, a former South Korean military official and
current senior analyst for the Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for
National Strategy.
But others think the North might use the drills as an excuse to conduct
another ICBM test or maybe even act on its threat to lob missiles into
the waters near Guam.
"North Korea is probably looking at all the cards it has to maximize
pressure against the United States, and the drills provide a good
opportunity to do it," Cheon said.